The Global AI Defense Race
The world is witnessing an intense competition in defense Artificial Intelligence (AI) involving 25 countries of varying sizes. This race is particularly significant in the Indo-Pacific region, where it unfolds against the backdrop of escalating US-China rivalry. The prevailing belief is that being first to develop new technology provides geo-economic and geostrategic advantages. China, among others, views AI as an emerging General Purpose Technology (GPT) that will become as ubiquitous as electricity.
Key Aspects of the AI Defense Race
- China is at the forefront, implementing national technology innovation strategies focused on AI
- Other major players include Australia, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, and India
- Countries are adopting various approaches to AI innovation, from guided strategies to less prescriptive methods
- The race encompasses academia, company R&D, industry production, and end-users
- Defense AI is nested within larger national AI efforts in most countries
Implications and Future Outlook
The AI defense race has far-reaching implications for global power dynamics and military capabilities. While China appears well-positioned for innovation, it faces increasing US technology sanctions. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan may have unexpected advantages, though they need to reform their defense AI innovation chains. Singapore and India are likely to be users of others’ defense AI technology. Australia could potentially leverage US AI advances through AUKUS Pillar II. As this race continues, it will shape not only military strategies but also economic and technological landscapes across the globe.
